Affected by the global market, major domestic steel producers in India have raised their ex-factory prices by 750 rupees/ton from February 1. This is the first time since October last year that domestic steel companies in India have increased their prices after four months.
According to JSW Steel, the price of Indian domestic steel before the price adjustment is about 42,000-4.4 million rupees per ton depending on the product. After this price adjustment, all steel products prices have risen by about 750 rupees/ton. On a global scale, steel prices have risen due to rising prices of important steelmaking raw materials. The global steel price of $40/ton has prompted domestic steel producers to raise prices in the domestic market, although Indian domestic iron ore prices are still weak compared to the global market. Due to the decline in production in China, global steel prices have been quite strong in recent years.
After the dam-breaking accident on January 25th in Brazil, one of the world's major iron ore countries, the price of iron ore in the global market has risen steadily. Global industry demand is expected to rise from next week, which will support the positive price outlook for the industry. But in India, the situation is very different. Since October last year, NMDC has cut the price by 30%. The mining lease of Chattisgarh's domestic iron ore miners will expire next year, so miners are working hard to extract as much iron ore as possible. This has led to an oversupply in the market, putting pressure on domestic iron ore prices.
At the same time, the rating agency ICRA said that after the collapse of the tailings dam in Brazil, the supply of iron ore from Brazil was affected, and the safety measures of the Brazilian mines are expected to be more stringent in the future. Due to the availability of sufficient iron ore inventories in India, the high probability of domestic iron ore prices in India will not rise sharply due to global events.
India's domestic iron ore supply will exceed demand by about 25 million tons, and this oversupply situation is expected to continue until the 2020 fiscal year. At the same time, most miners' leases will expire in March 2020.
India's total iron ore demand in FY 2019 was 201.2 million tons, while India's domestic iron ore production was estimated at 210 million tons and imports were about 15.7 million tons. This has caused an excess of 24.5 million tons of iron ore in India this fiscal year. The ICRA report said that Odisha's new production in the current fiscal year will far exceed Goa's reduced production due to regulation.
In November 2018, NMDC announced that its Donimalai mine in Karnataka was temporarily suspended due to tax disputes with the local government. However, in the following three months, NMDC still reduced the price of its ore produced from the Chattisgarh mine by Rs 950/ton, and the price of lump ore was reduced by Rs 1,250/ton. The above declines include the NMDC's downward revision of Rs 200/tonne in February 2019 when global iron ore prices rose sharply due to the Brazilian dam failure. Odisha's iron ore prices have also fallen in the past few months.
Benefiting from the increase in iron ore prices, Indian steel companies have raised steel prices again since 4 months before.
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